In the first quarter of 2026, Texas added $23.6 billion to its gross domestic product, while West Virginia slipped by $0.8 billion, according to the latest Haver Analytics release.
The data, posted early Tuesday, cover both Gross State Product (GSP) and personal income for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Overall, U.S. state GDP grew 1.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q1, edging up from the 1.6% pace recorded in Q4 2025.
What the numbers say
Four states posted double‑digit GSP growth: Idaho (+10.2%), Utah (+9.8%), Arkansas (+9.4%) and Montana (+9.1%). Their gains stem largely from robust construction activity and a rebound in consumer spending.
On the flip side, nine states posted declines, led by West Virginia (‑4.2%), Mississippi (‑3.9%) and Kentucky (‑3.5%). Energy‑price volatility and lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks are the chief culprits.
Personal income rose 2.3% nationwide, outpacing the GDP increase. The strongest per‑capita income jumps appeared in Nevada (+4.1%) and Nevada (+4.0%), reflecting booming tourism and tech‑related services.
Why does this matter?
State GDP drives local hiring, tax revenue and infrastructure budgets. A 2% rise in GSP translates into roughly $250 billion of extra economic activity, which can fund schools, roads and health care.
For voters, these figures often foreshadow policy debates. States with lagging growth may push for federal assistance or incentives, while booming regions could see tighter labor markets and rising home prices.
Regional takeaways
The Sun Belt continues its ascent. Texas, Florida and Arizona together contributed more than one‑third of the national GSP gain.
The Rust Belt, however, showed mixed signals. Ohio posted modest growth (+0.9%) while Michigan slipped (‑1.1%). Manufacturing output remains uneven, suggesting that supply‑chain reforms have not yet fully materialized.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest recorded the highest personal‑income growth rate at 3.2%, driven by a surge in cloud‑computing services and green‑energy projects.
What happens next?
Economists will watch the upcoming consumer‑confidence survey and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for clues on whether the current growth trajectory can sustain. If interest rates stay high, states reliant on borrowing for capital projects could see a slowdown.
For now, the Haver Analytics snapshot offers a granular view of an economy that is anything but uniform. The next quarter’s data, scheduled for release in July, will reveal whether the early‑2026 surge is a blip or the start of a broader upswing.
Stay tuned to economy and markets coverage for deeper analysis of how state‑level trends shape national policy and your wallet.