GRAPEVINE, Texas—Vice President J.D. Vance emerged as the clear favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in a straw poll conducted Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, winning 53 percent of ballots cast by attendees, according to results announced from the conference stage.
The informal survey, taken on the final day of the four-day grassroots gathering outside Dallas, placed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) a distant second with 22 percent, while former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem trailed in single digits. Organizers said roughly 1,800 delegates participated either electronically or at paper kiosks in the convention hall.
Although CPAC straw polls are not binding, they are closely watched inside Republican circles for early signs of activist enthusiasm. A campaign adviser for Vance, speaking on background, said the vice president was “honored by the vote of confidence from the conservative movement” but remains “100 percent focused on supporting the president’s agenda between now and 2028.”
Vance, 42, was elected vice president on the Trump–Vance ticket in 2024 after a rapid political ascent that began with his 2022 Senate win in Ohio. His populist economic messaging and high profile in national media have made him a favorite among the party’s pro-Trump base. “He mixes the outsider attitude we want with the governing experience we need,” said Laura Jenkins, a CPAC attendee from Oklahoma.
The showing solidifies Vance’s status as a presumptive heir to the Trump coalition if the former president opts against a comeback bid in 2028. However, veteran Republican strategists caution that the road ahead is long. “History tells us CPAC doesn’t pick nominees—fund-raising, ground game and debates do,” noted GOP consultant Frank Meyers, pointing to the 2015 straw poll that favored Sen. Rand Paul over eventual nominee Donald Trump.
This year’s conference drew fewer than 3,000 registered participants, a modest rebound from 2025 but well below pre-pandemic highs. Some analysts argue the smaller, self-selected crowd may inflate support for candidates most attuned to activist sentiment. “It’s a snapshot of the loudest voices, not the rank-and-file primary electorate,” said Sarah Womack, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
Looking ahead, potential rivals are already courting donors. Rubio is scheduled to headline a fundraiser in New Hampshire next month, while Pompeo will tour Iowa later this spring. Vance, for his part, plans to appear at a series of official events promoting the administration’s rural broadband initiative—engagements that will keep him in front of voters without formally launching a campaign.
With the first sanctioned GOP debates still three years away, Saturday’s poll is best read as an early temperature check. Yet, as Womack put it, “If Vance can translate activist enthusiasm into a broader coalition, he’ll start 2028 with a significant tailwind.”