National conservatives handed Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio a narrow victory in the annual Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll on Saturday, while Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida posted his strongest showing to date among the movement’s grassroots supporters, according to results released at the close of the four-day gathering outside Washington.
Conference organizers said Vance captured 32 percent of roughly 1,900 ballots cast, edging Rubio, who drew 29 percent. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley placed a distant third with 14 percent, followed by an assortment of governors and House members, the poll showed.
“The media keep telling us the party is fracturing over the war with Iran and our support for Israel, but this room is solidly on the same page,” CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp told attendees as he unveiled the numbers. “What you’re seeing is healthy competition inside a united movement.”
The informal survey, traditionally viewed as an early barometer of a still-notional 2028 presidential field, arrives six weeks after U.S. forces joined Israeli strikes on Iranian weapons depots — an intervention that has splintered some Republican lawmakers. Yet interviews with activists suggested Middle East policy was not a prime driver of their choices. “I voted Vance because he’s young and fights the elites,” said Maria DeSoto, a delegate from Texas. “Rubio did better because he’s showing up on every podcast that matters,” added Shaun Patel, a digital strategist from North Carolina.
Several GOP strategists cautioned that past CPAC straw-poll winners — including Sen. Rand Paul in 2015 — failed to convert activist enthusiasm into primary victories. “It tells us where the hardest-core donors and volunteers are today, not where the electorate will be two years from now,” said one Republican consultant who requested anonymity to discuss internal data.
Still, Rubio advisers argued the result shows momentum. “We’ve climbed ten points since January and we did it without a formal operation,” a senior aide said, pointing to expanding small-dollar fundraising lists.
The next test of activist sentiment will come at the Faith & Freedom Coalition summit in June, where both senators are scheduled to speak. Fund-raisers for super PACs aligned with Vance and Rubio said they expect the CPAC results to figure prominently in donor pitches over the spring.
Whether the apparent détente on Israel and Iran persists could determine how durable Saturday’s display of unity really is. Analysts noted that House votes on supplemental defense spending — expected as early as next month — may expose deeper fissures between isolationists and traditional hawks. “For now, White House hopefuls are walking a tightrope,” said Lina Morales, a foreign-policy scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “The activist base can pivot quickly if the shooting war escalates.”