As the United States and Iran engage in indirect truce negotiations, Israel is reportedly preparing for a sustained military campaign, according to regional analysts and unnamed officials. The diplomatic push, facilitated by European intermediaries, aims to de-escalate tensions following recent clashes, while Israeli leaders have publicly vowed to continue operations against Iranian-backed groups indefinitely.
Background discussions with three Western diplomats confirm that Washington has intensified backchannel communications with Tehran through Qatari and Omani mediators. These talks focus on avoiding direct confrontation, particularly after January’s exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran’s regional proxies. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated this week that the country’s military is ‘transitioning to a multi-year campaign posture,’ though he did not name specific adversaries.
Middle East security experts note the apparent divergence in approaches. ‘The U.S. sees diplomatic off-ramps as urgent after near-miss escalations,’ said a former State Department official speaking anonymously, ‘while Israel calculates that temporary ceasefires only allow Iranian networks to regroup.’ Satellite imagery analyzed by defense consultancy Janes shows expanded tunnel networks by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which some interpret as preparation for drawn-out conflict.
The situation presents challenges for the Biden administration’s dual objectives: preventing regional war while maintaining Israel’s security. With U.S. elections approaching, analysts suggest Washington may tolerate short-term Israeli operations but will pressure against major escalation that could derail the Iran nuclear talks.