The U.S. Air Force may struggle to sustain operations in a prolonged conflict with China due to aging aircraft, supply chain vulnerabilities, and insufficient munitions stockpiles, according to defense analysts and internal assessments reviewed by Asia Times. While the Pentagon has prioritized modernization, experts caution that readiness gaps could undermine deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
Recent war games and reports from the Congressional Budget Office highlight concerns about the Air Force’s ability to maintain air superiority against China’s rapidly expanding fleet. A 2025 RAND Corporation study found that U.S. bases in the region remain vulnerable to missile attacks, potentially crippling operations in the opening hours of a conflict.
“We’re playing catch-up in terms of both quantity and quality,” said a senior defense official speaking anonymously, noting that China’s hypersonic weapons development has outpaced U.S. defenses. The official confirmed that operational plans now assume higher attrition rates than during Cold War scenarios.
The Air Force has requested $215 billion for FY2026 – its largest budget ever – with 40% earmarked for Pacific theater readiness. However, Congressional delays in passing defense appropriations have slowed key programs like the Next Generation Air Dominance initiative.
Military strategists warn that without accelerated procurement and base hardening, the U.S. might face difficult trade-offs between protecting assets and maintaining offensive capability. Some analysts suggest the focus should shift to asymmetric capabilities like cyber and space systems rather than matching China plane-for-plane.