UK motorists could see petrol and diesel prices decline in coming weeks as geopolitical tensions easing in the Middle East relieve pressure on global oil markets, according to energy analysts. Prices at British pumps hit their highest level since January earlier this month following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports.
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, coupled with diplomatic efforts to prevent wider regional conflict, has already begun stabilizing crude oil benchmarks. Brent futures fell nearly 3% last week as traders priced in reduced risk premiums. ‘We’re seeing the first signs of normalization,’ said one commodities trader speaking anonymously due to company policy. ‘Unless there’s another escalation, retail fuel prices should follow wholesale trends downward with the usual 2-3 week lag.’
However, the AA warns that currency fluctuations and refinery maintenance schedules could delay or moderate any price drops. The pound remains weak against the dollar, and several North Sea facilities are undergoing seasonal upgrades. ‘The direction is promising but the pace remains uncertain,’ cautioned an AA fuel price spokesperson.
Industry sources note that UK fuel retailers have been slower to pass on wholesale cost reductions than increases during the recent surge. The RAC Foundation estimates current pump prices include 5-7p per liter in ‘excess margins’ above typical retailer profits.