The UK government is preparing for potential food shortages this summer as the ongoing conflict in Iran disrupts global supply chains, according to internal documents reviewed by BBC News. Officials have modeled worst-case scenarios showing critical gaps in staple goods if the situation worsens.
The planning assumes continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil shipments and key agricultural exports pass. Analysts note the UK imports nearly half its food, with particular dependence on Middle Eastern dates, rice, and vegetable oils.
“We’re seeing stress points in logistics networks that haven’t fully recovered from pandemic disruptions,” said a Whitehall official speaking anonymously. Supermarket executives reportedly participated in emergency COBRA meetings last month.
Economists warn the crisis could compound existing inflationary pressures. The Bank of England’s latest projections already account for a 0.5% GDP contraction if supply shocks persist.