WASHINGTON/TEHRAN – One month after U.S. and Israeli forces carried out the first coordinated strikes on Iranian soil in more than four decades, the conflict has rippled across the Middle East, touching battlefields from the Red Sea to the Levant and jolting global energy markets, according to regional officials and independent security analysts.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that the opening volley on 28 February targeted Iran’s integrated air-defense radars, ballistic-missile sites and what the Pentagon described as “facilities linked to Tehran’s advanced nuclear program.” Israeli aircraft reportedly flew cover from the Mediterranean, while American B-2 bombers launched standoff munitions from bases in Europe, two western defense officials told SourceRated on background.
Within 24 hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) answered with a wave of more than 120 ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at U.S. garrisons in Iraq and eastern Syria. At least 19 American service members were wounded, the Pentagon has said, while Iran’s state media claimed the barrage was “only a fraction of the retaliation deemed necessary.”
Fighting quickly spilled onto other fronts. Yemen’s Houthi movement stepped up attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes it says aid the U.S. war effort; meanwhile, Lebanese Hezbollah fired daily rocket salvos into northern Israel, prompting the evacuation of some 80,000 residents, according to Israeli emergency services. “The theatre is now regional, not bilateral,” warned Lina Khatib, a security scholar at SOAS University of London. “Every proxy actor is recalibrating its red lines.”
The economic fallout has been swift. Brent crude briefly touched $120 a barrel on 18 March, its highest level since 2022, before retreating after the International Energy Agency released strategic reserves. Lloyd’s List data show tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—artery for a fifth of global oil—down 35 percent since hostilities began.
On the diplomatic front, the U.N. Security Council has held three emergency sessions but failed to agree on a cease-fire resolution, with U.S. and Russian vetoes blocking rival drafts. “Neither Washington nor Tehran believes it has exhausted its military options,” a senior European diplomat said. “That leaves little room for de-escalation talks.”
Looking ahead, Western intelligence officials say Iran is repositioning short-range missiles along its Gulf coastline, while the U.S. Navy has redeployed a second carrier strike group to the region. Energy analysts warn that a prolonged disruption at Hormuz could shave up to 1.2 percent off global GDP if exports remain constricted into the summer.
“We’re in uncharted territory,” said Amir Handjani, a Gulf-based energy consultant. “Unless a back-channel emerges soon, the risk calculus for every actor—from oil traders to militia commanders—changes by the day.”