A comprehensive study has found no evidence that raising the minimum wage leads to job losses, contradicting decades of economic orthodoxy. The research, conducted by economists at University College Dublin, analyzed employment data from 25 countries over 15 years.
“We found precisely zero correlation between minimum wage increases and negative employment effects,” said lead researcher Dr. Aoife O’Sullivan. The study controlled for factors like economic growth, automation trends, and sector-specific impacts.
The findings come as Ireland debates raising its minimum wage to €12.70 per hour. Business groups have traditionally opposed such measures, warning they could force small businesses to cut staff. However, labor advocates argue the new research supports their case for higher wages.
Analysts note the study’s methodology represents a significant advancement over previous work by using real-time payroll data rather than employer surveys. “This gives us much more precise measurements of actual employment effects,” noted economist Mark Walsh at Trinity College Dublin.
The research could influence policy debates worldwide, particularly in countries where minimum wage increases remain politically contentious. Some economists caution that effects might vary in developing economies with large informal sectors.