WASHINGTON—Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said Tuesday that the United States expects any open conflict with Iran to be “concluded in the next couple of weeks,” and that several allied navies have signaled a willingness to help protect commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz if tensions escalate further.
Rubio, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, spoke to reporters following a classified briefing on Gulf security. According to aides present at the briefing, the senator claimed U.S. military planners believe an intensive air- and sea-based campaign could “neutralize Iran’s ability to close the waterway” in short order. “We are talking days, not months,” Rubio told journalists outside the Capitol.
The comments come after Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders announced over the weekend that they would begin “regulating” traffic through the 21-mile-wide strait, hinting at transit fees for foreign-flagged vessels. Although shipping data still shows tankers moving in both directions, at least three maritime insurers have raised their risk premium for voyages transiting the chokepoint, industry sources said.
U.S. Central Command confirmed late Monday that the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and two guided-missile destroyers have entered the Gulf of Oman. “Our presence is designed to reassure partners and guarantee freedom of navigation,” a defense official said, declining to comment on Rubio’s timeline.
European diplomats privately described the Florida senator’s remarks as “optimistic,” but acknowledged that France, the United Kingdom and Australia have informally agreed to join any U.S.-led escort mission should Iran impede traffic. “Nobody wants a shooting war, but neither can we allow the strait to be weaponized,” one senior European official told SourceRated.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani dismissed Rubio’s forecast as “wishful thinking,” insisting that Tehran has “no intention of closing the Hormuz,” but reserves the right to “levy equitable safety fees” under international law. Independent maritime lawyers say there is little legal precedent for such charges, and any attempt to enforce them unilaterally could trigger UN Security Council action.
Energy analysts warn that even a brief disruption could jolt oil markets. Roughly one-fifth of global crude exports pass through the strait each day. “If shipowners sense danger, you’ll see prices spike immediately,” said Lina Hossain, senior analyst at GulfWatch Energy. Brent futures briefly rose above $95 per barrel on Monday before retreating on reports of ongoing back-channel talks.
Whether Rubio’s accelerated timetable proves accurate may depend less on U.S. firepower than on Tehran’s appetite for brinkmanship, analysts say. The Pentagon insists it still prefers a diplomatic off-ramp, but with additional naval assets inbound and European warships on standby, the next fortnight could determine whether the crisis cools or flashes into open confrontation.