Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth launched his party’s Senedd election campaign on Tuesday, drawing parallels between the upcoming Welsh parliamentary contest and Plaid’s October 2023 victory in the Caerphilly by-election. Speaking at a rally in Cardiff, ap Iorwerth claimed the same grassroots energy that propelled the party to its surprise win could disrupt Labour’s longstanding dominance in Welsh politics.
The Caerphilly result saw Plaid overturn a 10,000-vote Labour majority in what analysts described as a protest vote against Westminster austerity policies. Welsh Labour currently holds 30 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, while Plaid has 13. ‘We proved in Caerphilly that when people believe change is possible, they vote for it,’ ap Iorwerth told supporters, citing internal polling showing growing support in traditional Labour strongholds.
Political scientists note Welsh Labour has governed continuously since devolution began in 1999. ‘Plaid’s challenge is translating by-election enthusiasm into a sustained national campaign,’ said Cardiff University professor Laura McAllister. ‘The proportional representation system means they don’t need to win outright – just secure enough regional list seats.’
With First Minister Mark Drakeford stepping down, some Welsh Labour insiders privately acknowledge voter fatigue after 25 years in power. A senior Welsh government official, speaking anonymously, admitted: ‘The NHS waiting lists and education cuts make this our toughest election since devolution.’
Observers suggest Plaid could potentially form a coalition with Welsh Conservatives or Liberal Democrats if Labour loses its majority. However, ap Iorwerth ruled out any deal with the Tories, telling reporters: ‘Our red line is protecting devolution from Westminster attacks.’ The election is expected to be called for May 2026.