NEW YORK — A surge in oil prices and a simultaneous slide in both stocks and Treasury bonds has steered investors back toward managed-futures strategies, the once-niche corner of the market that generated outsized gains during the turmoil of 2022, according to fund analysts and trading desks.
Data compiled by research firm BarclayHedge show net inflows of roughly $2.3 billion into U.S. mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track managed-futures programs in the first three weeks of March, reversing three straight months of outflows. The pickup comes as Brent crude breached the $100-a-barrel mark Thursday for the first time in 18 months, the S&P 500 slid more than 6 percent from its February peak and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.65 percent, its highest since November.
“When you have bond and equity correlations turning positive, there aren’t many places to hide,” said Maya Patel, a multi-asset strategist at Horizon Capital. “Trend-following futures programs tend to make money from precisely this kind of macro dislocation.”
Managed-futures funds, often called CTAs for their reliance on commodity trading advisers, use computer models to go long or short futures tied to interest rates, currencies, commodities and equity indexes. Because the models ride trends that unfold over weeks or months, performance is often uncorrelated with traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios. In 2022, the average systematic-trend fund returned roughly 20 percent, even as the S&P 500 lost 19 percent and U.S. investment-grade bonds fell 13 percent, according to data from Société Générale.
So far in 2026 the group is flat to slightly positive, but proponents say the current cross-asset sell-off may rekindle the conditions that fueled the 2022 windfall. “Energy markets have broken out, central banks are struggling to tame sticky inflation and geopolitical risk is back in focus,” noted a derivatives desk head at a European bank, who asked not to be named because he is not authorised to speak publicly. “Our models have swung from neutral to strongly long crude and short global bonds in just two weeks.”
Still, critics warn the strategy can whipsaw. Managed-futures funds surrendered much of their early-2023 gains when energy prices retreated and rate expectations gyrated. “The entry point matters; trend followers lag when markets chop sideways,” cautioned Morningstar analyst Bill Reynolds. He added that fees—often north of 0.90 percent for ETFs and higher for private funds—can erode returns in quieter periods.
Looking ahead, analysts will watch whether central banks accelerate rate cuts to cushion growth, a move that could undercut the short-bond positions many CTAs currently hold. For the moment, however, the macro backdrop appears to be handing managed-futures managers the same playbook that delivered double-digit gains four years ago.