NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. — Vice President J.D. Vance topped this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll, giving the 41-year-old Ohioan an early edge among grassroots activists looking toward the 2028 U.S. presidential race, according to results announced late Friday.
Unofficial tallies provided by event organizers showed Vance capturing 34 percent of roughly 2,000 ballots cast during the four-day gathering. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second with 27 percent, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley trailed at 12 percent. The poll, conducted electronically among registered attendees, is viewed largely as a barometer of activist enthusiasm rather than a scientific survey.
“The vice president’s numbers reflect the energy he has built on the trail defending President Trump’s agenda,” a senior CPAC official said, requesting anonymity because the full tabulation has not been publicly released. Vance spent two days at the conference, delivering a keynote that highlighted the administration’s foreign-policy record and pledging to “carry our movement forward” once Trump leaves office in January 2029.
Rubio’s second-place showing underscores his own growing profile inside the administration after helping broker the recent Pacific security compact. “Rubio is positioning himself as the heir to Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ mantra,” said Maria Thompson, a Republican strategist who advises several super PACs. “The straw poll suggests that message is resonating.”
First conducted in 1976, CPAC’s informal vote has produced mixed predictive results: Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney both won early straw polls before securing nominations, while past victors like Rand Paul faded quickly. “It’s an enthusiasm snapshot, not a crystal ball,” noted University of Virginia political scientist Harold Greene.
Still, campaigns seize on favorable numbers to entice donors and volunteers. A person familiar with Vance’s political operation said the vice president’s team plans to meet with bundlers in Dallas next month and expand a nascent policy network aimed at Midwestern voters. Rubio advisers, meanwhile, told reporters the secretary will headline fund-raisers in New Hampshire and Iowa this summer.
Looking ahead, analysts say the party’s 2028 contest could hinge on how closely candidates embrace — or distance themselves from — Trump’s America-First doctrine. “Vance is essentially running for Trump’s third term,” Greene said. “Rubio is selling a hawkish, globally engaged conservatism. The activist base will decide which version defines the post-Trump GOP.”