NEW YORK — China, India and the United States will together supply more than half of the world’s incremental economic output over the next five years, according to fresh projections from the International Monetary Fund that underscore a continuing eastward tilt in global growth.
The Fund’s spring World Economic Outlook update, released late Tuesday, estimates that China alone will add roughly $5 trillion in gross domestic product between 2024 and 2029. India is set to contribute another $2.6 trillion, while the United States, despite slower growth than in the post-pandemic rebound, is expected to expand by about $2.1 trillion.
“Even after accounting for structural headwinds—an aging workforce in China and higher interest rates in America—the sheer scale of these economies means they will remain the primary engines of growth,” a senior IMF economist told reporters on background.
The projections rank Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea and Mexico among the next-largest contributors, reflecting resilient domestic demand and renewed foreign investment in their manufacturing sectors. Nigeria and Egypt break into the top ten for the first time, buoyed by demographic momentum and plans to expand energy production, the report shows. Brazil, once a member of the so-called BRICS growth club, slips to 12th place as commodity revenue cools and fiscal tightening bites.
Analysts say the list matters because incremental GDP, rather than growth rates alone, shapes everything from export opportunities to the trajectory of global carbon emissions. “Where the new dollars are created tells multinationals where to build their next factory—and tells climate negotiators where the mitigation debate is heading,” said Priya Menon, chief economist at GlobalData Markets.
The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes no worldwide recession and only limited geopolitical spillovers from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fund cautions, however, that a sharper-than-expected tightening of U.S. monetary policy or a protracted property slump in China could shave as much as 0.6 percentage point from world output by 2026.
Looking ahead, officials in Washington and Beijing both emphasized the need for structural reforms—higher labor-force participation in the United States and stronger social safety nets in China—to lock in the forecast gains. Investors will be watching April’s meetings of the IMF and World Bank for signs that policymakers are prepared to deliver.