JERUSALEM—Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi cautioned Monday that the military is “approaching a critical manpower threshold” after nearly six months of around-the-clock operations in Gaza and heightened alerts on the northern border, according to officials briefed on a closed-door Knesset hearing.
Halevi’s remarks, delivered to the parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, underscored growing concern inside the security establishment that a prolonged call-up of reservists, combined with declining enlistment in certain combat units, could erode readiness as Israel faces simultaneous threats from Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias.
“We have maintained an average of roughly 300,000 reservists since October 7; many are now on their third or fourth rotation,” one committee member said, paraphrasing the chief’s testimony. “Without relief, fatigue will translate into operational risk.” The IDF normally relies on a much smaller reserve force during peacetime.
Military planners are also grappling with a shrinking pipeline of conscripts. Demographers note that the number of 18-year-olds eligible for mandatory service has fallen about 2.5 percent annually over the past decade, while exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men have risen. “The math no longer works,” a defense analyst at Tel Aviv University said. “The IDF needs more boots just as the pool is getting smaller.”
The manpower crunch carries an economic price tag. A confidential Finance Ministry paper, parts of which were obtained by The Jerusalem Post and other outlets, estimates that the extended mobilization is costing roughly 3 billion shekels (US $820 million) a month in lost productivity and direct stipends.
In response, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed it is reviewing proposals to shorten reserve tours from 30 to 21 days, raise pay for critical specialties and expand the use of autonomous surveillance systems along the Gaza and Lebanese borders. No final decisions have been taken.
Opposition lawmakers urged the government to revive failed 2022 legislation that would broaden the draft to include most ultra-Orthodox men. Ultra-Orthodox parties, pivotal to the governing coalition, signaled they would block any such move.
Looking ahead, analysts say the IDF has roughly two months before troop rotations collide with peak agricultural and tech-sector labor demand. “If there is no diplomatic off-ramp in Gaza or Lebanon by early summer, Israel will have to choose between economic strain and military risk,” the analyst added.