NEW YORK—Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, has completed a $1.6 billion investment in the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket, according to people familiar with the transaction.
Documents reviewed by SourceRated show the deal closed late Thursday and will leave ICE with roughly 55 percent of Polymarket’s equity, giving the Atlanta-based exchange group effective control over one of the cryptocurrency sector’s most closely watched start-ups.
A person briefed on the terms said the consideration is a mix of cash and ICE shares and values Polymarket at just over $2.9 billion. Neither company responded to requests for comment, but the figure was separately confirmed by two bankers who worked on the financing.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events—ranging from Federal Reserve rate moves to the outcome of television award shows—using the dollar-pegged USDC stablecoin. The platform settled more than $21 million in wagers last month, internal metrics reviewed by SourceRated show.
The business has also attracted regulatory scrutiny. In January 2022 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined Polymarket $1.4 million for offering unregistered binary-options contracts and ordered it to wind down certain markets. The company subsequently geo-fenced U.S. customers from some products and hired a raft of compliance staff. “Polymarket now has a clearer path in the U.S. after two years of back-and-forth with the CFTC,” said Chris Perkins, a former regulator who advises digital-asset exchanges.
For ICE, the purchase marks its biggest foray into crypto since it launched futures venue Bakkt in 2018. Analysts at JMP Securities said the platform could eventually be folded into ICE’s existing derivatives clearing infrastructure, giving retail traders a regulated venue for wagering on everything from election outcomes to sports results. “If you combine ICE’s clearing technology with Polymarket’s user base, you have a product that can compete with sports-books and options exchanges at the same time,” JMP analyst Devin Ryan said.
The companies plan to apply for a Designated Contract Market license with the CFTC by year-end, two people involved with the talks said. Should regulators sign off, Polymarket contracts could be offered legally to U.S. residents as soon as early 2027.
Industry observers say the tie-up could accelerate mainstream adoption of so-called event contracts, but warn that Washington’s attitude toward retail prediction markets remains unsettled. Still, with a blue-chip exchange owner now on board, venture investors and rival exchanges are expected to revisit the sector in the months ahead.