WASHINGTON — A quarter-century review of World Bank national accounts finds that a handful of Asian and African economies — led by Ethiopia, Rwanda and China — have recorded the world’s highest average GDP growth rates since 1999, underscoring a profound shift in the geography of global economic momentum.
Between 1999 and 2023, Ethiopia’s real gross domestic product expanded at an average clip of 8.2 percent a year, according to the World Bank’s newly updated historical series. Rwanda followed at 7.9 percent, while China logged 7.7 percent, despite its recent slowdown. The three countries more than quadrupled the size of their economies in constant-dollar terms over the period.
The remainder of the top ten is populated almost entirely by other emerging markets: Cambodia, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Mozambique all registered average annual growth above 6 percent, while oil-rich Azerbaijan rounded out the group. “These nations combined youthful demographics with aggressive infrastructure investment and, in many cases, a push toward export-oriented manufacturing,” said a senior economist at the Institute of International Finance who asked not to be named because the data have not yet been formally presented.
By contrast, advanced economies grew much more slowly. The United States averaged 2.1 percent, while the euro area posted just 1.4 percent. Japan managed 0.9 percent over the 25-year span, World Bank figures show.
Analysts caution that breakneck growth has not always translated into broad-based prosperity. “Rapid GDP expansion in Ethiopia and Mozambique coexisted with periodic political instability and rising debt,” noted Michelle Tan, sovereign risk director at Fitch Ratings. The IMF puts Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio at 31 percent, up from 12 percent in 2006.
Looking ahead, the IMF’s January update forecasts India to lead the G-20 with 6.5 percent growth in 2024, while Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to post gains above 6 percent. China is projected to slow to 4.6 percent but will remain the single largest contributor to world output growth in absolute terms.
Whether the current leaders can sustain their edge will hinge on political stability, climate resilience and continued market access, economists say. “The next 25 years will be less about catching up and more about avoiding the middle-income trap,” Tan added.