NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. — A noisy bloc of activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday urged Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to mount a 2026 primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn, framing the long-time Republican senator as out of step with the party’s populist base.
Dozens of attendees waved “Run, Ken, Run” placards during a panel on Senate races, and volunteers later passed out straw ballots that gave Paxton a 68-percent win over Cornyn when participants were asked whom they would back in a hypothetical primary, according to totals announced from the stage. CPAC does not release official vote counts, but organizers confirmed the figures “closely mirrored” an internal survey of some 1,200 badge holders.
Paxton, who was acquitted by the Texas Senate last year on impeachment charges involving securities fraud allegations, did not attend the gathering but acknowledged the movement in a brief phone interview. “I’ve made no decision about 2026,” Paxton told SourceRated. “I’m honored so many conservatives believe I’m the one who will fight for them.”
Cornyn’s office declined to comment on the straw poll, referring instead to the senator’s recent record that includes opposition to additional Ukraine spending, sponsorship of a border-security bill and his vote against the bipartisan gun-safety measure that passed the chamber in 2024. “Sen. Cornyn is focused on doing his job for Texans, not on political theater two years out,” a spokesman emailed.
Strategists note that while CPAC crowds have reliably tracked with former president Donald Trump’s base, they represent only a slice of the Texas primary electorate. “Cornyn starts with enormous institutional advantages—money, name ID and relationships in every county,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican consultant who has worked on statewide races. “But Paxton, if he runs, would tap into the same anti-establishment energy that toppled incumbents like Eric Cantor a decade ago.”
Early polling is scant. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey in January did not test a Paxton-Cornyn matchup, but it found 48 percent of GOP voters held a favorable view of Paxton compared with 36 percent for Cornyn. Fund-raising reports filed with the Federal Election Commission last week show Cornyn with $5.8 million on hand; Paxton, who is not currently on the ballot, reported just under $200,000 in his state account.
State party officials are publicly neutral. “We welcome a vigorous primary,” Texas GOP chair Matt Rinaldi said in a statement, adding that “Republican voters, not the media, will decide our nominee.”
Should Paxton enter the race, analysts expect outside groups aligned with Trump to pour money into Texas, testing whether the MAGA wing can again topple an establishment figure. Conversely, business-oriented super PACs that defended Gov. Greg Abbott from a right-flank challenge in 2022 are already signalling support for Cornyn, according to two GOP fund-raisers who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.
The filing deadline is more than a year away, but CPAC’s straw poll has thrown an early spotlight on Texas. Whether the weekend enthusiasm translates into a statewide coalition will be a key barometer of the Republican Party’s direction heading into the 2026 midterms.