China’s economy grew at a faster pace than economists predicted in Q1 2024, posting 5.3% year-on-year GDP growth despite supply chain disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict, according to National Bureau of Statistics data verified by international analysts. The figure exceeded the 4.8% consensus forecast from a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Industrial production rose 6.1% while retail sales grew 4.7%, suggesting domestic consumption remains resilient. However, analysts note the property sector continues to drag on growth, with new home sales falling 27% year-on-year.
‘The numbers show China’s diversified export markets and strategic commodity reserves helped cushion Middle East volatility,’ said a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered who requested anonymity due to client sensitivities. Asian Development Bank data shows regional trade volumes dropped 18% since the conflict began.
Market watchers caution that Q2 growth may moderate as inventory drawdowns taper and Western demand softens. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects China’s full-year growth at 4.6%, citing ‘persistent structural headwinds.’