The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating unusual trading activity in oil futures markets that occurred ahead of two major Iran policy announcements by former President Donald Trump in March and April, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The probe focuses on trades placed before March 23, when the Trump administration abruptly delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, and April 7, when it agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran. Market analysts noted suspicious trading patterns in crude oil derivatives during these periods, with unusually large positions being taken just days before the policy shifts became public.
‘These were high-volume, high-risk bets that appeared to anticipate major geopolitical developments,’ said one financial sector analyst who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the investigation. ‘The timing raises obvious questions about whether non-public information was involved.’
The CFTC routinely monitors commodity markets for signs of manipulation or insider trading. While the agency has not confirmed the investigation, sources say it has requested trading records from major energy derivatives exchanges and several brokerage firms.
If proven, such trading activity could violate U.S. laws against market manipulation and commodities fraud. The case comes as financial regulators worldwide increase scrutiny of geopolitical risk trading following several high-profile cases of alleged insider trading related to government actions.
Legal experts note that proving insider trading in geopolitical contexts presents unique challenges, as it requires demonstrating that traders had material non-public information about government decisions. The outcome of the investigation could have significant implications for how financial markets price geopolitical risk and how regulators monitor such activity.