According to a new poll by Sigma Dos for Demócrata, the conservative Popular Party (PP) in Andalusia, led by President Juanma Moreno, is nearing an absolute majority in the upcoming regional elections. The poll shows the Socialist Party (PSOE) at historic lows, while far-right Vox sees a slight uptick in support.
The survey suggests Moreno’s PP could secure 45-48 seats in the 109-seat Andalusian Parliament, just shy of the 55 needed for an absolute majority. PSOE, traditionally strong in the region, is projected to win only 25-28 seats—its worst performance in decades. Vox, meanwhile, is estimated to gain 12-14 seats, a marginal increase from previous polls.
Analysts attribute Moreno’s lead to his handling of regional economic policies and infrastructure projects. “Moreno’s pragmatic governance has resonated with voters, even those outside traditional PP strongholds,” said a political analyst familiar with Andalusian politics. PSOE’s decline is linked to internal divisions and voter fatigue after years of national governance.
If the poll results hold, Moreno could govern without needing Vox’s support, a scenario that would stabilize Andalusia’s political landscape. However, with months until the election, shifts in voter sentiment remain possible.